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and
see approach. "The
question is do you buy the stock during
the frenzy or wait until after the
frenzy is over and you can buy much more
for much less if that stock still has
a chance?" Schwartz said. "They
all need it to happen in 2014 to
survive. As an investor many of us have
the luxury of time and history and with a
little patience we can wait before placing
bets or not."
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megaphone
image from Bigstock |
"I
expect a lot of noise in
2014. I expect all types of bogus
press releases and other
nonsense. I expect staged sales to
try and create frenzies. I expect a
lot of pain for some when those
renewals come due in 1 year. I
expect a lot of failures.
Each one that fails makes the job of
the next one all that much harder
and for folks not to understand the
ramifications of that are likely to
lose money. I expect things to
unfold like I have looked at the
last 18 years. I expect any
success to be held up like a
man just walked on the moon for
the first time while minimizing
all the headwinds of reality,'
Schwartz said. |
"Some
don't want to hear these things,
but with 900 horses in a race, how
many can really finish in the money and be
meaningful, effective, long lasting and
worthy of a business building a future on?
Aren't those the first questions to
ask and figure out? Handicap the race. How
many will be trampled out of the gate?
How many will die before they leave the
gate? What does it do to a train of 900
when a .sucks shows up on the scene
and a barrage of negatively with it?
Will ICANN enforce
their own contracts? Will there be
collisions and confusion? Will email work
correctly? What type of lawsuits
will begin to fly and what will the
outcomes be? Will it look .good in
print or confusing if there is a .typo?
Will the consumer even want it? Is there
really a need, want and desire or
is it manufactured to lure domain
investors that have already got caught
holding the bag on more than one
occasion? What
type of studies and focus groups did these
new registries do? My hunch is not
much."
Rick Schwartz (right) and
Frank Schilling debating new
gTLDs at the October 2013
T.R.A.F.F.I.C. East conference at Fort
Lauderdale Beach, Florida. - See
more at: http://www.dnjournal.com/cover/2014/january.htm#sthash.05e7tBZG.dpuf
Rick Schwartz (right) and
Frank Schilling debating new
gTLDs at the October 2013
T.R.A.F.F.I.C. East conference at Fort
Lauderdale Beach, Florida. - See
more at: http://www.dnjournal.com/cover/2014/january.htm#sthash.05e7tBZG.dpuf
Rick Schwartz (right) and
Frank Schilling debating new
gTLDs at the October 2013
T.R.A.F.F.I.C. East conference at Fort
Lauderdale Beach, Florida. - See
more at: http://www.dnjournal.com/cover/2014/january.htm#sthash.05e7tBZG.dpuf
Rick Schwartz (right) and
Frank Schilling debating new
gTLDs at the October 2013
T.R.A.F.F.I.C. East conference at Fort
Lauderdale Beach, Florida. - See
more at: http://www.dnjournal.com/cover/2014/january.htm#sthash.05e7tBZG.dpuf
Rick Schwartz (right) and
Frank Schilling debating new
gTLDs at the October 2013
T.R.A.F.F.I.C. East conference at Fort
Lauderdale Beach, Florida. - See
more at: http://www.dnjournal.com/cover/2014/january.htm#sthash.05e7tBZG.dpuf
Rick Schwartz (right) and
new gTLD proponent Frank Schilling of
Uniregistry.com
debating new gTLDs at the October 2013 T.R.A.F.F.I.C. East
conference at Fort Lauderdale Beach,
Florida.
"On
branding, what does .Apple put left
of the dot? I have yet to find one combo
that even sounds normal that would be a
main entrance. Now I do see it as a
platform for internal or even vendor use.
But we will see. And will anyone actually abandon
their .com? Close it down to go to one
of these? Seems unlikely. Let's see who
will be first to walk the plank."
"I
think 2014 is a year of questions that
will be answered one by one,"
Schwartz continued. "Questions some
folks don't want to hear asked and
certainly don't have solid answers for
because the answers are simply unknown
at best and a repeat of history at worst.
It could be very ugly and not to at
least acknowledge that possibility is
surprising. Making up answers that don't
hold water really makes you scratch your
head. Once you lose credibility, game
over!"
"They
talk about sales like some newbies talk
about traffic as if it were a given.
"Oh we're not worried about
that". Well worry, because
sales are not as easy as you think
when there are 900 alternates. Again, some
don't like to hear that, but they need to come
back down to earth. The numbers will
bring them and everyone else back into
reality sooner or later."
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.Com
image from Bigstock |
"There
could a place for some of these gTLD's.
But they are not a replacement
for .com and to me that is about
the dumbest tact they can use,"
Schwartz said. "Why? Because
they lose all credibility from the
gate. What else do they say that I
should not believe? In fact it shows
some real desperation and they have
been feeding that crap to the press.
They
are an aid. They are an assist. They
are on on ramp. They are a side
door. They are a branch. Few
will ever be trees."
"Nobody
can say I am on the fence about what
is coming. But I am still open
minded enough to weigh new
information as it comes in.
Either |
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way.
For or against. The expansion is not
a threat to the Internet or the
existing extensions. The abuse,
confusion and unintended
consequences that will come with the
virtually uncontrolled expansion,
is a threat. I
also see it as a threat to the
investors behind the scenes that
have bought into hundreds of
extensions looking for the 2nd
coming. Many of which will be DOA.
And if not DOA then completely
meaningless in the scheme of things.
Same result. Why? Because there are
not enough meaningful strings of
words left of the dot to get any
oxygen or traction." |
"Everyone
points to .co. But when they point,
they forget to mention the differences,"
Schwartz noted. "First of there was a
premise for testing the extension. Maybe
the public would adopt ".co" for
"Company". It was also shorter
than .com and then there could be some
mistaken typo traffic. So there were reasons
to buy into that possibility."
"Put
those aside. The .Co registry spent a a
boatload of money for their
introduction and rollout. What I see here
is exactly the opposite. As
business people, how much do you think
each has to spend on advertising and shows
and ads and all the rest to get their
message out? If they are depending on the Registrars
to do it for them, they are going to get a
loud and ugly wake up call."
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"Who do you listen to? Who do
you believe? What are the actual
facts? What is hype? What a tangled
web we have weaved. And I continue
to believe and seems to be widely
supported, that it will be .web that
has the single best chance of making
an impact. So if you were to agree
that .web is the likely winner of
the 900 then there would be 2
logical questions to ask. Who is #2
and by what type margin? 5-1?
10-1? 20-1? Then #3
and the distance to #4."
"So
am I supposed to tie up my funds in
an illiquid asset on the 896
runner-ups or save those dollars for
a more meaningful investment should
the MARKET say this is a direction
it likes? Sorry, I don't have
unlimited funds to gamble with
especially when the likelihood of
that gamble paying off is in real
question," Schwartz said. |
Place
Your Bets image from Bigstock |
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