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At every
T.R.A.F.F.I.C. conference I have been asked to speak about
the latest trends reflected in the sales data we collect
for our weekly
domain sales column. I did that again
this past week. When I ran the numbers I found that $121
million worth of sales had been reported to us in
2007, a 70% jump over the $71 million
reported to us in 2006 (reported sales are of course just a
fraction of the overall market but they provide a
representative sample). I think that is an amazing
increase considering that the entire second half of
2007 was a time when the general economy was weakening
month after month.
There was no
such weakening in domain sales. The weakest quarter in
2007 was Q1 as it usually is (the first quarter tends to
start off very slowly as people drift back to work after
the long holiday season). Thereafter numbers were consistent
the rest of the year, totaling between $30-$35 million
each quarter, including Q3 and Q4 when there was a heavy
downdraft in the general economy.
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How about 2008? We
were only 6 weeks into the New Year when I ran the
data for the report I gave Wednesday, but at the
current weekly rate of sales we will finish around
$25 million in Q1 - a jump of almost 20%
over Q1 last year (I actually think it will be a
good deal higher as T.R.A.F.F.I.C. auctions
are still to be completed and counted, as well as
several not yet done from DOMAINfest).
I think Michael
Berkens had it right. Seems to
me we have become quite jaded |
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when over $4
million in sales in a single afternoon (of an
asset that we all know has very limited liquidity)
is pretty decent, especially when over $3
million more was sold on another afternoon at
DOMAINfest just 3 weeks before. Doesn't matter if
these sales occur at different venues (and there
are a lot more sales venues now), the dollars
are still being spent at a faster clip than they
were a year ago - the reverse of what we are
seeing in the general economy. So I'm not sure that people who say the expansion of the aftermarket
has stopped deserve a pat on the back for "telling it like it is" when the best data we have says
that's not how it is at all."
Incidentally,
DomainState is running a poll in that thread
asking their readers if they thought the domain
market was in a downturn. At the time of this
posting, a huge majority, 65% to 25%
answered No. Our data says they are right
about that. The ship is not sinking, the sky is
not falling and it doesn't appear that the end of
the world is at hand. Certainly, things could
change as the year wears on and if they do,
we'll tell you when it becomes a fact rather than
a false alarm.
(Posted
Feb. 23, 2008) |
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